How well do people use numbers in decision making?
LE3 .A278 2013
2013
Mehta, Rick
Acadia University
Bachelor of Science
Honours
Psychology
The current study used a 2x2 design to examine the influence of the natural frequency view (Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995) and the causal Bayesian reasoning view (Krynski & Tenenbaum, 2007) on accuracy and base-rate neglect in Bayesian reasoning tasks. In addition, it examined whether numeracy could predict accuracy and rates of base-rate neglect. In accordance with the natural frequency view, higher accuracy was observed when natural frequencies were used. Furthermore, the causal Bayesian reasoning view was partially supported, in that higher accuracy was observed when causal presentation was used. However, the view’s assertions regarding mental mapping were not supported, suggesting that more research into the mechanism is needed. Finally, higher numeracy was associated with greater accuracy and lower rates of base-rate neglect.
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https://scholar.acadiau.ca/islandora/object/theses:986